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WHEN LEADERS LEAVE: THE SILENT DISTANCE BETWEEN THE DEPARTED AND THE LED

Emmanuel Okom
Leadership rarely ends with the closing of a door. When a leader departs, whether from political office, an institution, or a community, the relationship between the leader and the led does not instantly disappear. Instead, it enters a subtle phase of psychological, social, and historical distancing. This period is not a void but a complex space filled with the echoes of past authority and the quiet reorganization of collective life.  The moment of departure often creates a vacuum filled with mixed emotions: relief, nostalgia, criticism, hope, or even confusion. For the followers who remain behind, the departure becomes the beginning of a reflective journey – one that gradually reinterprets the past while confronting the realities of the present. This process, often overlooked in leader-centric narratives, is where the true legacy of leadership is forged in the hearts and minds of those left behind.   The Immediate Aftermath: Emotional Echoes and the “Network Aftershock” In th...
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A PRECARIOUS PRECEDENT: THE DECLARATION OF EMERGENCY IN RIVERS STATE AND ITS FAR-REACHING IMPLICATIONS

Emmanuel Okom

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State on March 18, 2025, is a seismic moment in Nigeria’s democratic journey. Citing prolonged political turmoil, constitutional breaches, and emerging security threats, the President invoked Section 305 of the 1999 Constitution to suspend the State’s executive and legislative arms. In their place, he appointed retired Vice Admiral Ibok Ette Ibas as Administrator, to oversee governance for an initial six-month period. This unprecedented action raises critical questions about governance, democracy, and political stability in Nigeria and across Africa.

 A Power Play or Necessary Intervention?

The decision to dissolve Rivers State’s elected government stems from a complex crisis that has paralyzed the State’s political and administrative functions. The destruction of the House of Assembly by Governor Siminalayi Fubara, his failure to rebuild it, and the State’s inability to pass an appropriation bill were central to the Supreme Court’s ruling that Rivers effectively had no government. Furthermore, reports of militant activities, pipeline vandalism, and threats of violence underscored the urgency of intervention.

 However, this move also reeks of executive overreach. By sidestepping the democratic process, Tinubu has set a precedent that could embolden future leaders to override elected governments in the name of national security. This raises concerns about Nigeria’s commitment to democracy and constitutional governance.

 Implications for Rivers State and Nigeria

Democratic Erosion: Suspending an elected governor and legislature, even temporarily, risks weakening democratic institutions. The people of Rivers State are left without representation, making the situation akin to political disenfranchisement.

Political Polarization: This move is likely to deepen existing political divisions. Supporters of Fubara may see this as a targeted attack, while opponents might hail it as a necessary step to restore order.

Economic Uncertainty: Rivers State, a crucial oil-producing region, could experience economic instability. Investor confidence may wane, and local businesses may struggle under a government led by an appointed administrator rather than elected officials.

Legal Challenges: The legality of this intervention is bound to be contested, setting up a legal battle that could reach the Supreme Court once again.

Security Concerns: While the intent is to restore order, this intervention could provoke unrest from groups aligned with the ousted administration or those who view this as an affront to democracy.

 Historical Parallels: A Dangerous Pattern in Africa

Tinubu’s decision echoes similar interventions across Africa, where state emergencies have been used as both tools of stabilization and instruments of political control.

Egypt (2013): Following mass protests against President Mohamed Morsi, the military intervened, declaring a state of emergency. The justification was national security, but it ultimately led to authoritarian rule under Abdel Fattah el-Sisi.

Ethiopia (2016 & 2021): States of emergency were declared to suppress protests and conflicts, often at the cost of civil liberties.

Zimbabwe (2017): Robert Mugabe’s removal involved military intervention disguised as a democratic restoration, yet it effectively shifted power within the ruling elite rather than to the people.

 If unchecked, Nigeria could join the ranks of African nations where executive overreach becomes the norm rather than the exception.

 The Future of Leadership in Africa and Nigeria

This intervention sets a precedent where a sitting President can override elected state governments under the guise of restoring order. If repeated, this could lead to an era where state governments lose autonomy, making Nigerian democracy increasingly centralized. Other African leaders watching Nigeria may adopt similar measures, reinforcing the continent’s long history of leaders using emergency powers to consolidate control.

 Forecasting Rivers State in Six Months

Six months from now, Rivers State will either emerge as a stabilized, governable entity or remain a hotbed of political unrest. Key scenarios include:

Scenario 1: Stability and Order – The administrator restores governance, initiates economic recovery, and reconciles warring factions, leading to a peaceful return to democracy.

Scenario 2: Unrest and Backlash – Protests erupt, legal challenges stall governance, and Rivers State remains politically fragile.

Scenario 3: Extended Emergency Rule – If instability persists, Tinubu may extend emergency powers, pushing Nigeria closer to democratic backsliding.

 A Nation at a Pivotal Moment

Tinubu’s bold decision leaves Nigeria at a pivotal moment. Will this intervention be a catalyst for genuine political stability, or will it serve as a template for future executive overreach? The coming months will determine whether this is a necessary corrective measure or a dangerous subversion of democracy.

 As Nigeria and the world watch Rivers State, one question lingers: Is this the dawn of a new era of strong-handed governance, or the beginning of a dangerous slide into political authoritarianism? Time will tell, but history will not forget. Stay tuned.

OKOM, Emmanuel Njor (PhD)

 

You can watch President Bola Ahmed Tinubu's broadcast declaring a state of emergency in Rivers State in the video below:

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